USA

Incoming high-frequency data already pointed to a cooling but still-expanding economy: S&P Global’s flash February PMIs showed the composite index easing to 52.3 (the slowest pace in approximately 10 months), while employment growth nearly stalled—consistent with an early-year GDP pace of around 1.5% according to their interpretation. The key “hard” inflation release during the week was January PPI, officially scheduled by the BLS for Friday, February 27—a potential catalyst for rate repricing if producer inflation were to re-accelerate.

The dominant macro overlay during the week was policy uncertainty related to tariffs: headlines about the Supreme Court striking down prior tariffs, followed by confusing and volatile new tariff proposals, pushed US equity futures and the USD lower at the start of the week and supported safe-haven assets. In equities, the week was also earnings-sensitive (with Nvidia repeatedly flagged as a major swing factor for index direction given its weight and AI leadership), which amplified NASDAQ and S&P beta to single-stock outcomes.

Europe

The key macro focus was whether activity would stabilize into month-end and whether policy signaling would offset external shocks. China’s market sensitivity during the week remained closely tied to trade policy headlines, given its direct exposure to US tariff shifts, as well as to broader global risk appetite. Chinese authorities also publicly responded to the tariff-related news flow, calling for the removal of unilateral tariffs while reviewing ongoing developments—keeping trade policy a first-order driver of market sentiment.

Index implication (Shanghai Composite / Hang Seng): Mainland equities tended to track domestic policy expectations and earnings outlooks, while the Hang Seng remained more levered to global liquidity conditions, technology risk appetite, and China–US headline volatility. As a result, tariff uncertainty frequently drove sharper swings in Hong Kong than in onshore markets.

Japan

The macro pulse entering last week appeared constructively expansionary: Japan’s flash February PMIs showed manufacturing at 52.8 (the fastest growth in nearly four years), while services also strengthened and exports accelerated—supportive for industrials and exporters as long as global risk sentiment held up. However, Japan was caught between (1) stronger activity data, which revived expectations of further BoJ normalization, and (2) global risk-off impulses stemming from US policy and tariff developments that drove JPY strength—a headwind for equities.

Index implication (Nikkei 225 / TOPIX): Strong PMIs provided a fundamental tailwind, but near-term direction often hinged on FX dynamics and global tech sentiment. When tariff-related noise lifted the yen and pressured semiconductors and global cyclicals, the Nikkei (given its heavier exposure to exporters and technology) tended to lag the TOPIX.

China

The key macro focus was whether activity would stabilize into month-end and whether policy signals would offset external shocks. China’s market sensitivity during the week remained closely tied to trade policy headlines, given its direct exposure to US tariff shifts, as well as to broader global risk appetite. China also publicly responded to the tariff-related news flow, calling for the removal of unilateral tariffs while reviewing ongoing developments—keeping trade policy as a first-order variable for market sentiment.

On the data front, China watchers monitored late-month releases such as industrial profits—a key barometer of corporate health in the industrial sector—and looked ahead to the next PMI set around month-end for confirmation of demand momentum.

Index implication (Shanghai Composite / Hang Seng): Mainland equities tended to track domestic policy expectations and earnings outlooks, while the Hang Seng was more levered to global liquidity conditions, technology risk appetite, and China-US headline volatility. As a result, tariff uncertainty often drove sharper swings in Hong Kong than in onshore market.