Weekly market report: October 29, 2025

USA

Flash PMIs signaled a solid start to Q4: S&P Global’s Composite PMI rose to 54.8 in October (from 53.9), with services leading and manufacturing expanding modestly—albeit alongside softer business confidence and weaker export orders amid tariff uncertainty and a federal data blackout. Initial jobless claims (state-reported proxies due to missing state data) rose to ~227–232k for the week ended Oct 18, implying a still-soft but stable labor market. Inflation tone stayed market-friendly as September CPI was reported at ~3.0% y/y, supporting expectations of further Fed easing. Earnings helped breadth—Ford leapt after a Q3 beat—while AI-adjacent capex themes buoyed cyclicals. Equities rallied: S&P 500 +1.9% w/w to a record, Dow +2.2%, Nasdaq +2.3% (week ending Fri, Oct 24).

Europe

The HCOB Eurozone Composite Flash PMI climbed to 52.2, a 17-month high and the 10th straight month in expansion—Germany accelerated (best in ~2.5 years) while France weakened further; UK’s composite edged up to 51.1. Cooling U.S. inflation and strong UK bank earnings lifted risk appetite: FTSE 100 closed at a record (9,645.6) and rose ~2.6% on the week, STOXX 600 +1.68% w/w, DAX +1.72% w/w; CAC 40 was roughly flat to modestly higher. NatWest beat with ~30% y/y profit growth and raised guidance, aiding UK financials. The macro mix (firmer services, tentative manufacturing stabilization, subdued price pressure) reinforced the case for the ECB to proceed cautiously after earlier cuts.

Japan  

Flash Jibun Bank/S&P Global PMIs showed manufacturing still contracting (~48.3) while services remained expansionary, pointing to uneven growth momentum. September core CPI rose ~2.9% y/y, keeping inflation above the BoJ’s target into the late-October meeting and sustaining talk of a near-term policy adjustment. Stocks advanced modestly into week-end ahead of subsequent stimulus headlines: Nikkei 225 +~0.2% w/w (49,300 on Oct 24); TOPIX +~0.6% w/w. The policy setup (inflation >2%, services resilience, weak factory output) left rates sensitive to BoJ guidance and fiscal-stimulus expectations.

China

Policy stayed steady as the PBOC left the 1-yr LPR at 3.0% and 5-yr at 3.5% (Oct 21) for a fifth month, prioritizing stability during the Fourth Plenum while signaling scope for future easing given low inflation. Equities firmed: Shanghai Composite +2.2% w/w (3,950 on Oct 24); Hang Seng +1.2% w/w (26,160)—helped by hopes for additional support measures and calmer trade rhetoric later in the week. Overall activity indicators were light in this window (official PMIs due end-month), so markets traded mostly on policy cues and global risk appetite.

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