Weekly market report: October 9, 2025

USA

The week was dominated by data and policy cross-currents: the ISM surveys showed manufacturing still in mild contraction (Manufacturing PMI 49.1) while services treaded water at the 50 breakeven with employment below 50, signaling cooling demand and hiring. Release of September non-farm payrolls on Friday, Oct 3, was postponed amid the U.S. government shutdown, depriving markets of a key labor read; earlier context from August showed payrolls essentially flat (+22k) and unemployment at 4.3%. Even without the jobs report, equities advanced on rate-cut hopes and AI momentum: the S&P 500 and Dow closed at fresh records Friday and finished the week up ~1.1% each, while the Nasdaq gained ~1.3%.

Europe

Euro area flash HICP accelerated to 2.2% YoY in September (services 3.2%), complicating the disinflation narrative even as PMIs signaled only modest growth (composite 51.2; manufacturing slipped back into contraction at 49.8, services 51.3). Policy rhetoric stayed balanced: ECB officials emphasized risks around inflation undershooting in 2026–27 while acknowledging still-elevated services prices. Stocks rallied regardless—helped by healthcare and tech—sending the STOXX Europe 600 to a record and ~2.9% weekly gain; France’s CAC 40 rose ~2.7% on the week, the FTSE 100 notched gains across the period, and the DAX hovered near all-time highs.

Japan

The BoJ Tankan (Q3) showed broadly steady conditions (large-firm diffusion indexes little changed) and corporate price expectations broadly anchored; labor data softened with the jobless rate up to 2.6% in August, and the au Jibun/Markit manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in September. Equities were choppy but resilient into week-end: the Nikkei 225 oscillated and ended the week little changed around 45k, while broader gains accelerated the following sessions on political developments; the TOPIX reflected similar stability.

China

Activity indicators were mixed ahead of Golden Week market closures: the official NBS manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 (still sub-50) while non-manufacturing dipped to 50.0; private-sector surveys were firmer with Caixin manufacturing 51.2 and services 52.9. Mainland bourses traded only through Sep 30 (holiday Oct 1–8), but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng delivered a strong week as AI/tech momentum persisted, up ~3.9% despite a soft Friday close.

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