Weekly market report: September 10, 2025

USA

The August jobs report (released Fri, Sep 5) showed nonfarm payrolls +22k with unemployment 4.3%, confirming a cooler labor market; average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m, 3.7% y/y. Initial jobless claims for the week ended Aug 30 ticked up to 237k (4-wk avg 231k). ISM surveys painted a mixed picture: Manufacturing PMI 48.7 (6th straight contraction) while Services PMI 52.0 signaled expansion. Together, the data firmed expectations of a September Fed cut and pulled Treasury yields lower. Equities whipsawed Friday but finished mixed for the week: S&P 500 +0.3%, Nasdaq +1.1%, Dow −0.3%; tech outperformed on AI optimism (e.g., Broadcom earnings), while rate-sensitive groups lagged.

Europe

The euro area flash HICP edged up to 2.1% y/y in August, keeping inflation just above the ECB’s target ahead of the Sep 11 meeting. Final PMIs showed the HCOB Composite at ~51.0, a 12-month high but consistent with only modest growth—manufacturing output improved while services cooled; Spain led, France remained sub-50. Government-bond yields rose early in the week on fiscal worries before easing as US cut bets strengthened. Equity indices were choppy: STOXX Europe 600 hovered near recent lows mid-week and recovered into Friday; FTSE 100 was roughly flat to slightly higher by week’s end; DAX and CAC underperformed on rate and political jitters.

Japan

Macro prints were notably firmer: real wages +0.5% y/y (Jul)—first positive in seven months—on nominal cash earnings +4.1%, and household spending +1.4% y/y (Jul). PMIs suggested ongoing expansion led by services, with manufacturing near the 50 line. The data support a gradual domestic-demand handoff even as inflation remains above the BoJ’s target, keeping policy normalization in play. Equities stayed buoyant: Nikkei 225 and TOPIX were supported by wage momentum and a global “Fed-cut” tone, with the Nikkei pressing record territory into the following session.

China

Activity signaled “mixed but stabilizing.” Private-survey Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 while official NBS Manufacturing PMI stayed in contraction at 49.4; services held in expansion. August trade cooled: exports +4.4% y/y (slowest in six months) and imports +1.3%, with shipments to the US −33% y/y, underscoring tariff drag and the pivot toward ASEAN. Equities reflected the cross-currents: Shanghai Composite consolidated near decade highs on ongoing policy support, and Hang Seng advanced on the week as investors rotated into China proxies.

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